本期推送梳理了2023年度经济学五大英文顶刊（American Economic Review、The Quarterly Journal of Economics、The Review of Economic Studies 、Journal of Political Economy 、Econometrica ）中有中国学者参与的以及探讨中国重大现实问题的各类文章，并对这些文章的研究范围进行了简要的归纳和分析，以飨读者。这些文章对现实问题进行了较为深刻的分析和讨论，对我们进一步理解和解决中国的经济问题具有较为重要的借鉴价值和启示意义，非常值得一读。

  Authors  

Matilde Bombardini，Bingjing Li，Francesco Trebbi

中国学者：Bingjing Li，Department of Economics, The University of Hong Kong

  Source  

American Economic Review, 2023, 113(1), 174-209

  Abstract  

Information sets, expectations, and preferences of politicians are fundamental, but unobserved determinants of their policy choices. Employing repeated votes in the US House of Representatives on China's normal trade relations (NTR) status during the two decades straddling China's World Trade Organization (WTO) accession, we apply a moment inequality approach designed to deliver consistent estimates under weak informational assumptions on the information sets of members of Congress. This methodology offers a robust way to test hypotheses about what information politicians have at the time of their decision and to estimate the weight that constituents, ideology, and other factors have in policy making and voting.

  摘要  

政治家的信息集、预期和偏好是其政策选择的基本决定因素，但却无法观察到。在中国加入世界贸易组织（WTO）的二十年间，美国众议院就中国的正常贸易关系（NTR）地位进行了多次投票，我们利用矩不等式方法，旨在对国会议员的信息集进行弱信息假设，从而得出一致的估计结果。这种方法提供了一种稳健的方法来检验政治家在决策时所掌握信息的假设，并估计选民、意识形态和其他因素在政策制定和投票中的权重。

  原文链接  

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20210140

  Authors  

Alain de Janvry, Guojun He, Elisabeth Sadoulet, Shaoda Wang，Qiong Zhang

中国学者：Guojun He，Department of Economics and Department of Management and Strategy, The University of Hong Kong

Qiong Zhang，Institute of Social Security Studies, Renmin University of China

  Source   

American Economic Review, 2023, 113(3), 766-799

  Abstract  

Subjective performance evaluation could induce influence activities: employees might devote too much effort to pleasing their evaluator, relative to working toward the goals of the organization itself. We conduct a randomized field experiment among Chinese local civil servants to study the existence and implications of influence activities. We find that civil servants do engage in evaluator-specific influence to affect evaluation outcomes, partly in the form of reallocating work efforts toward job tasks that are more important and observable to the evaluator. Importantly, we show that introducing uncertainty about the evaluator's identity discourages evaluator-specific influence activities and improves bureaucratic work performance.

  摘要  

主观绩效评估可能会诱发影响活动：相对于为组织本身的目标而努力，员工可能会投入过多精力来取悦评估者。我们在中国地方公务员中开展了一项随机实地实验，研究影响活动的存在及其影响。我们发现，公务员确实参与了针对评估者的影响活动，以影响评估结果，部分形式是将工作精力重新分配到对评估者来说更重要、更可观察到的工作任务上。重要的是，我们表明，引入评价者身份的不确定性会阻止评价者的特定影响活动，并改善官僚工作绩效。

  原文链接  

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20211207

  Authors 

Kuhn, P.，Shen, K

  Source  

American Economic Review, 2023, 113(4), 1013-1048

  Abstract  

When employers' explicit gender requests were unexpectedly removed from a Chinese job board overnight, pools of successful applicants became more integrated: women's (men's) share of callbacks to jobs that had requested men (women) rose by 61 (146) percent. The removal "worked" in this sense because it generated a large increase in gender-mismatched applications, and because those applications were treated surprisingly well by employers, suggesting that employers' gender requests often represented relatively weak preferences or outdated stereotypes. The job titles that were integrated by the ban, however, were not the most gendered ones, and were disproportionately lower-wage jobs.

  摘要  

当雇主对性别的明确要求一夜之间从中国的一个招聘网站上意外删除后，成功应聘者的群体变得更加融合：在要求男性（女性）应聘的职位中，女性（男性）的回电比例上升了61%（146%）。从这个意义上说，取消性别要求“奏效”了，因为它导致性别不匹配的申请大量增加，而且这些申请出乎意料地受到了雇主的青睐，这表明雇主的性别要求往往代表了相对较弱的偏好或过时的刻板印象。然而，被禁令纳入的工作岗位并不是性别差异最大的岗位，而且大多是工资较低的岗位。

  原文链接  

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20211127

  Authors  

  Source  

American Economic Review, 113 (5): 1170-1207

  Abstract  

This paper uses the universe of cellphone records from a Chinese telecommunication provider for a northern Chinese city to examine the role of information exchange in urban labor markets. We provide the first direct evidence of increased communication among referral pairs around job changes. Information provided by social contacts mitigates information asymmetry and improves labor market performance.

  摘要  

本文利用一家中国电信运营商提供的中国北方城市手机通话记录，研究了信息交流在城市劳动力市场中的作用。我们首次提供了直接证据，证明围绕工作变动，推荐人之间的交流有所增加。社会联系人提供的信息缓解了信息不对称，提高了劳动力市场的绩效。

  原文链接  

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20200187

  Authors  

Michael Rubens

  Source  

American Economic Review, 113 (9): 2382-2410

  Abstract  

I examine the effects of oligopsony power on allocative efficiency and income redistribution by studying a size regulation in the Chinese tobacco industry that led to ownership consolidation. I show that separate identification of input price markdowns, goods price markups, and productivity is challenging when a subset of inputs is nonsubstitutable, which often holds for materials, and construct and estimate a model to overcome this challenge. I find that the regulation increased input price markdowns by 37 percent on average. This increase in oligopsony power led to a decline in allocative efficiency and redistributed income away from rural households.

  摘要  

我通过研究中国烟草行业导致所有权整合的规模管制，考察了寡头力量对分配效率和收入再分配的影响。我的研究表明，当投入品的子集不可替代时（材料通常如此），对投入品降价、商品加价和生产率的单独识别具有挑战性，因此我构建并估计了一个模型来克服这一挑战。我发现，该法规使投入品降价平均增加了 37%。寡头力量的增加导致了分配效率的下降，并使农村家庭的收入发生了重新分配。

  原文链接  

  Authors  

Shuo Liu，Nick Netzer

中国学者：Shuo Liu，Guanghua School of Management, Peking University

  Source  

American Economic Review, 113 (12): 3289-3322

  Abstract  

Surveys measuring happiness or preferences generate discrete ordinal data. Ordered response models, which are used to analyze such data, suffer from an identification problem. Their conclusions depend on distributional assumptions about a latent variable. We propose using response times to solve that problem. Response times contain information about the distribution of the latent variable through a chronometric effect. Using an online survey experiment, we verify the chronometric effect. We then provide theoretical conditions for testing conventional distributional assumptions. These assumptions are rejected in some cases, but overall our evidence is consistent with the qualitative validity of the conventional models.

  摘要  

测量幸福感或偏好的调查会产生离散的序数数据。用于分析此类数据的有序响应模型存在识别问题。它们的结论取决于对潜在变量的分布假设。我们建议使用响应时间来解决这个问题。响应时间通过计时效应包含了关于潜变量分布的信息。通过在线调查实验，我们验证了计时效应。然后，我们提供了检验传统分布假设的理论条件。这些假设在某些情况下被否定，但总体而言，我们的证据与传统模型的定性有效性是一致的。

  原文链接  

2023年《The Quarterly Journal of Economics》期刊上发表的文章中，有4篇文章涉及中国问题和中国故事，其中2篇有中国学者参与，研究范围涉及中美贸易、中国政治统一格局的形成、个人精英网络对中国政治及战争的影响、“一带一路”倡议等重大现实问题。

  Authors  

Rafael Dix-Carneiro, João Paulo Pessoa, Ricardo Reyes-Heroles, Sharon Traiberman

  Source  

The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 138(2), 1109-1171

  Abstract  

We argue that modeling trade imbalances is crucial for understanding transitional dynamics in response to globalization shocks. We build and estimate a general equilibrium, multicountry, multisector model of trade with two key ingredients: (i) endogenous trade imbalances arising from households’ consumption and saving decisions; (ii) labor market frictions across and within sectors. We use our model to perform several empirical exercises. We find that the “China shock” accounted for 28% of the decline in U.S. manufacturing between 2000 and 2014—1.65 times the magnitude predicted from a model imposing balanced trade. A concurrent rise in U.S. service employment led to a negligible aggregate unemployment response. We benchmark our model’s predictions for the gains from trade against the popular ACR sufficient-statistics approach. We find that our predictions for the long-run gains from trade and consumption dynamics significantly diverge.

  摘要  

我们认为，建立贸易失衡模型对于理解应对全球化冲击的过渡动态至关重要。我们建立并估算了一个多国、多部门的一般均衡贸易模型，该模型有两个关键要素：(i) 由家庭消费和储蓄决策引起的内生性贸易失衡；(ii) 各部门之间和部门内部的劳动力市场摩擦。我们利用这一模型进行了多项实证研究。我们发现，“中国冲击”占 2000 年至 2014 年美国制造业下降的 28%，是实行平衡贸易的模型预测值的 1.65 倍。与此同时，美国服务业就业率的上升导致的总失业率反应微乎其微。我们将我们的模型对贸易收益的预测与流行的 ACR 充分统计方法进行了比较。我们发现，我们对长期贸易收益和消费动态的预测存在显著差异。

  原文链接  

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjac043

  Authors  

Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, Mark Koyama, Youhong Lin, Tuan-Hwee Sng

中国学者：Youhong Lin，Department of Economics, School of Economics, Xiamen University and Wang Yannan Institute of Economic Research

  Source  

The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2023, 138(2), 1173-1231

  Abstract  

Patterns of state formation have crucial implications for comparative economic development. Diamond (1997) famously argued that “fractured land” was responsible for China’s tendency toward political unification and Europe’s protracted polycentrism. We build a dynamic model with granular geographical information in terms of topographical features and the location of productive agricultural land to quantitatively gauge the effects of fractured land on state formation in Eurasia. We find that topography alone is sufficient but not necessary to explain polycentrism in Europe and unification in China. Differences in land productivity, in particular the existence of a core region of high land productivity in northern China, deliver the same result. We discuss how our results map into observed historical outcomes, assess how robust our findings are, and analyze the differences between theory and data in Africa and the Americas.

  摘要  

国家的形成模式对比较经济发展有着至关重要的影响。戴蒙德（Diamond，1997 年）提出了一个著名的观点，即 "破碎的土地 "是中国政治统一趋势和欧洲长期多中心主义的原因。我们利用地形特征和农业生产用地位置等细粒度地理信息建立了一个动态模型，以定量衡量土地破碎对欧亚大陆国家形成的影响。我们发现，仅凭地形就足以解释欧洲的多中心主义和中国的统一。土地生产力的差异，尤其是中国北方高土地生产力核心区域的存在，也带来了同样的结果。我们讨论了我们的结果如何映射到观察到的历史结果，评估了我们的发现的稳健程度，并分析了非洲和美洲的理论与数据之间的差异。

  Authors  

Giulia Brancaccio, Myrto Kalouptsidi, Theodore Papageorgiou, Nicola Rosaia

  Source  

The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 138(4): 2451–2503

  Abstract  

We explore efficiency and optimal policy in decentralized transport markets, such as taxis, trucks, and bulk shipping. We show that in these markets, search frictions distort the transportation network and the dynamic allocation of carriers over space. We derive explicit and intuitive conditions for efficiency and show how they translate into efficient pricing rules, or optimal taxes and subsidies for the planner who cannot set prices directly. The results imply that destination-based pricing is essential to attain efficiency. Then, using data from dry bulk shipping, we demonstrate that search frictions lead to a sizable social loss and substantial misallocation of ships over space. Optimal policy can eliminate about half of the welfare loss. Can a centralizing platform, often arising as a market-based solution to search frictions, do better? Interestingly, the answer is no; although the platform eradicates frictions, it exerts market power, thus eroding the welfare gains. Finally, we use two recent interventions in the industry (China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the environmental initiative IMO 2020) to demonstrate that taking into account the efficiency properties of transport markets is germane to any proposed policy.

  摘要  

我们探讨了分散运输市场（如出租车、卡车和散货运输）的效率和最优政策。我们表明，在这些市场中，搜索摩擦扭曲了运输网络和运输工具在空间上的动态分配。我们推导出了明确而直观的效率条件，并展示了这些条件如何转化为有效的定价规则，或为无法直接定价的规划者提供最优税收和补贴。结果表明，基于目的地的定价对实现效率至关重要。然后，利用干散货航运的数据，我们证明了搜索摩擦会导致相当大的社会损失和船舶在空间上的严重错配。最佳政策可以消除约一半的福利损失。通常作为搜索摩擦的市场化解决方案而出现的集中化平台能做得更好吗？有趣的是，答案是否定的；尽管该平台消除了摩擦，但它施加了市场力量，从而侵蚀了福利收益。最后，我们利用最近对该行业的两次干预（中国的 "一带一路 "倡议和 IMO 2020 环保倡议）来说明，考虑运输市场的效率属性对任何拟议政策都至关重要。

  原文链接  

https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjad023

2023年《The Review of Economic Studies》期刊上发表的文章中，有3篇文章涉及中国问题和中国故事，其中1篇有中国学者参与，研究范围涉及中国增值税改革、在线零售商和政府数据与人工智能等重大现实问题。

  Authors  

Zhao Chen,Xian Jiang, Zhikuo Liu, Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato, Daniel Yi Xu

中国学者：Zhao Chen，School of Economics, Fudan University

Zhikuo Liu，School of Economics, Fudan University

  Source  

The Review of Economic Studies, 90(2), 634-674

  Abstract  

We incorporate the lumpy nature of firm-level investment into the study of how tax policy affects investment behavior. We show that tax policies can directly impact the lumpiness of investment. Extensive-margin responses to tax policy are key to understanding the effects of different tax reforms and to designing effective stimulus policies. We illustrate these results by studying China’s 2009 VAT reform, which lowered the tax cost of investment and reduced partial irreversibility—the price gap between new and used capital. Using comprehensive tax survey data and a difference-in-differences design, we estimate a 36% relative investment increase that is driven by investment spikes. Using a dynamic investment model that fits the reduced-form effects of the reform, we show that policies that directly reduce the likelihood of firm inaction are more effective at stimulating investment.

  摘要  

在研究税收政策如何影响投资行为时，我们将公司层面投资的波动性纳入其中。我们的研究表明，税收政策会直接影响投资的波动性。外延利润率对税收政策的反应是理解不同税收改革效果和设计有效刺激政策的关键。我们通过研究中国 2009 年的增值税改革来说明这些结果，改革降低了投资的税收成本，减少了部分不可逆转性--新资本和旧资本之间的价格差距。利用全面的税收调查数据和差异设计，我们估算出了由投资峰值推动的 36%的投资增长。我们使用一个动态投资模型来拟合改革的简化形式效应，结果表明，直接降低企业不作为可能性的政策在刺激投资方面更为有效。

  原文链接  

https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac027

  Authors  

Kenneth Rogoff,Yang You

中国学者：Yang You，Finance Department, The University of Hong Kong

  Source  

The Review of Economic Studies, 90(2), 975-1008

  Abstract  

Can massive online retailers such as Amazon and Alibaba issue digital tokens that potentially compete with bank debit accounts? There is a long history of trading stamps and loyalty points, but new technologies are poised to sharply raise the significance of redeemable assets as a store of value. Here, we develop a simple stylized model of redeemable tokens that can be used to study sales and pricing strategies for issuing tokens, including ICOs. Our central finding is that platforms can potentially earn higher revenues by making tokens non-tradable unless they can generate a sufficiently high outside-platform convenience yield.

  摘要  

亚马逊和阿里巴巴等大型在线零售商能否发行数字代币，与银行借记卡账户一争高下？邮票和会员积分的交易由来已久，但新技术将大幅提高可兑换资产作为价值存储的重要性。在此，我们建立了一个简单的可兑换代币风格化模型，可用于研究发行代币（包括 ICO）的销售和定价策略。我们的核心发现是，除非平台能产生足够高的平台外便利收益，否则平台可以通过使代币不可交易来获得更高的潜在收入。

  原文链接  

https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac028

  Authors  

Martin Beraja, David Y Yang, Noam Yuchtman

  Source  

The Review of Economic Studies, 90(4), 1701-1723

  Abstract  

Developing artificial intelligence (AI) technology requires data. In many domains, government data far exceed in magnitude and scope data collected by the private sector, and AI firms often gain access to such data when providing services to the state. We argue that such access can stimulate commercial AI innovation in part because data and trained algorithms are shareable across government and commercial uses. We gather comprehensive information on firms and public security procurement contracts in China’s facial recognition AI industry. We quantify the data accessible through contracts by measuring public security agencies’ capacity to collect surveillance video. Using a triple-differences strategy, we find thatdata-rich contracts, compared to data-scarce ones, lead recipient firms to develop significantly and substantially more commercial AI software. Our analysis suggests a contribution of government data to the rise of China’s facial recognition AI firms, and that states’ data collection and provision policies could shape AI innovation.

  摘要  

开发人工智能（AI）技术需要数据。在许多领域，政府数据在数量和范围上都远远超过了私营部门收集的数据，而人工智能公司在向国家提供服务时往往能获得这些数据。我们认为，这种访问权可以刺激商业人工智能创新，部分原因在于数据和训练有素的算法可以在政府和商业用途之间共享。我们收集了有关中国人脸识别人工智能行业的公司和公安采购合同的全面信息。通过衡量公安机构收集监控视频的能力，我们对通过合同获取的数据进行了量化。利用三重差分策略，我们发现，与数据稀缺的合同相比，数据丰富的合同会使接受合同的公司开发出更多的商业人工智能软件。我们的分析表明，政府数据为中国人脸识别人工智能企业的崛起做出了贡献，国家的数据收集和提供政策可能会影响人工智能创新。

  原文链接  

https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdac056

2023年《Journal of Political Economy》期刊上发表的文章中，共有3篇文章有中国学者参与，研究问题涉及同伴效应与学生成绩、银行扩张和婚前投资行为，其中1篇探讨了中国的现实问题——婚前投资行为对人力资本投资的影响。

  Authors  

Arthur Lewbel, Xi Qu, Xun Tang

中国学者：Xi Qu，Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University

  Source  

Journal of Political Economy, 131(4), 898-946

  Abstract  

We point-identify and estimate linear social network models without observing any network links. The required data consist of many small networks of individuals, such as classrooms or villages, with individuals who are each observed only once. We apply our estimator to data from Tennessee’s Project STAR (Student-Teacher Achievement Ratio). Without observing the latent network in each classroom, we identify and estimate peer and contextual effects on students’ performance in mathematics. We find that peer effects tend to be larger in bigger classes and that increasing peer effects would significantly improve students’ average test scores in some classes.

  摘要  

我们在不观察任何网络链接的情况下，对线性社会网络模型进行点识别和估计。所需的数据由许多小型个体网络组成，如教室或村庄，每个个体只被观测一次。我们将我们的估计方法应用于田纳西州的 STAR 项目（学生-教师成就比）数据。在不观察每个教室的潜在网络的情况下，我们识别并估计了同伴和环境对学生数学成绩的影响。我们发现，在较大的班级中，同伴效应往往更大，而增加同伴效应将显著提高某些班级学生的平均考试成绩。

  原文链接  

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/722090

  Authors  

Yan Ji, Songyuan Teng, and Robert M. Townsend

中国学者：Yan Ji ，Hong Kong University of Science and Technology

  Source  

Journal of Political Economy, 131(8), 000-000

  Abstract  

We propose a model with local spatial markets and heterogeneous agents to understand and evaluate the geographic expansion of bank branches after banking deregulation in Thailand. The model features heterogeneity in financial frictions across regions, with the costs of accessing credit and deposits depending on the distance from the nearest branch. Disciplined by micro estimates of the effects of branch openings, the model reproduces salient regional and aggregate patterns concerning occupational choice, financial access, and inequality. We apply the model to study two counterfactual financial sector policies in distant markets, one subsidizing branches and the other subsidizing household deposits.

  摘要  

我们提出了一个具有地方空间市场和异质性代理的模型，以理解和评估泰国银行业放松管制后银行分支机构的地域扩张。该模型的特点是各地区金融摩擦的异质性，获取信贷和存款的成本取决于与最近分行的距离。通过对分行开设效果的微观估计，该模型再现了有关职业选择、金融获取和不平等的显著地区和总体模式。我们运用该模型研究了远距离市场的两种金融部门政策，一种是补贴分行，另一种是补贴家庭存款。

  原文链接  

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/724112

  Authors  

V. Bhaskar，Wenchao Li，Junjian Yi

中国学者：Junjian Yi，National Development Research Institute of Peking University

  Source  

Journal of Political Economy, 131(10), 2893-2919

  Abstract  

We analyze premarital investments in human capital and housing when individuals are unable to make binding commitments to share their labor income with a prospective spouse. Investments are distorted if there are gender differences in bargaining power over own labor income or marriage market imbalances. Distortions are magnified when ex ante bargaining power favors one sex (e.g., women in China) and ex post bargaining power favors the other (e.g., men in China), since parents of boys will increase housing investments in order to credibly commit to share more resources with the boy’s potential wife, possibly crowding out human capital investments.

  摘要  

我们分析了当个人无法做出有约束力的承诺与未来配偶分享其劳动收入时，对人力资本和住房的婚前投资。如果两性对自身劳动收入的议价能力存在差异或婚姻市场失衡，投资就会被扭曲。当事前讨价还价的能力有利于某一性别（如中国的女性），而事后讨价还价的能力有利于另一性别（如中国的男性）时，扭曲就会被放大，因为男孩的父母会增加住房投资，以便可信地承诺与男孩潜在的妻子分享更多的资源，这可能会挤出人力资本投资。

  原文链接  

https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/724574

2023年《Econometrica》期刊上发表的文章中，共有1篇文章有中国学者参与，这篇文章关注了近期的热点话题——全球气候变化和碳减排，作者认为仅征收碳税无法解决全球气候发生不利变化所带来的灾害，因此通过构建模型说明了征收碳税和资本税对全球经济和环境可持续发展的重要意义。这篇文章虽然没有直接探讨中国的相关问题，但全球气候变化与中国的命运息息相关，因此这篇文章对中国的经济和环境问题具有重要的启示意义。

  Authors  

  Source  

Econometrica, 91(5), 1763-1802

  Abstract  

Emissions abatement alone cannot address the consequences of global warming for weather disasters. We model how society adapts to manage disaster risks to capital stock. Optimal adaptation—a mix of firm-level efforts and public spending—varies as society learns about the adverse consequences of global warming for disaster arrivals. Taxes on capital are needed alongside those on carbon to achieve the first best. We apply our model to country-level control of flooding from tropical cyclones. Learning rationalizes empirical findings, including the responses of Tobin's q, equity risk premium, and risk-free rate to disaster arrivals. Adaptation is more valuable under learning than a counterfactual no-learning environment. Learning alters social-cost-of-carbon projections due to the interaction of uncertainty resolution and endogenous adaptive response.

  摘要  

仅靠减排无法解决全球变暖对气象灾害造成的后果。我们模拟了社会如何适应以管理资本存量的灾害风险。当社会了解到全球变暖对灾害来临的不利影响时，最优适应——企业层面的努力和公共支出的组合——就会发生变化。要实现最佳适应，除了碳税之外，还需要征收资本税。我们将模型应用于国家层面的热带气旋洪水控制。学习合理化了经验发现，包括托宾 Q、股票风险溢价和无风险利率对灾害到来的反应。与没有学习的反事实环境相比，学习环境下的适应更有价值。由于不确定性解决和内生适应性反应的相互作用，学习改变了社会碳成本预测。

https://doi.org/10.3982/ECTA20442